WRJ CURRICULUM OF ENTREPRENEURIAL REVOLUTION - G B b
& Human Intelligence applied to brawn and brain of machines -celebrate Small Medium Enterprises
history wherever ideologues, economists, governments,
corporates,educators fail to celebrate Small Medium Enterprises as hubbing
inventions that advance human lot -
nations (big as well as small) collapse in fear and hate- with the difference that 20th C part 2 -from moon race to internet -foresaw the coming
of age when all nations people are in motherearth's and artificial intelligences same lifeboat
editing errors are solely responsibility of email@example.com washington dc +1 240 316 8157 who can be contacted to
share optimistic ideas on how to value youth and AI as well as microfranchise solutions to SDGS and transparent continent-wide maps of win-win world trade integral to celebrating Earth Race Goal 1: thriving community
wherever next girl is born
Since death of JFK, Japan has helped lead the East and the whole world towards peace
that millennials urgently need to be sustainable. 2019 references www.musicforsdgs.com Japan radio podcasts months 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 10 11 12
History Double Loop with The Economist since 1962 : re-indexed NormanMacrae.net & EconomistJapan.com
Emperor Hirohito - one of humanity's greatest leaders - by Norman Macrae
have forecast in 1901 that a prince, who was told at birth that he was the direct descendant of a Storm God and a Sun Goddess,
would prove to be a bravely ordinary man who would affect uniquely for good the second half of the new century. That is the
Emperor Hirohito's legacy
his accession in 1926, Japan's military advance could not have been checked by any sort of monarch. Had Emperor Hirohito tried,
he would have been pushed aside. Japan's entry into world war in 1941 was particularly popular with many Japanese and hundreds
of millions of Asians who saw it as likely to end Asia's hated subjection to European colonialism, which it actually did.
The Emperor's great service to this century came in 1945, when he claimed it was the consensus of the Japanese that they should
unconditionally surrender, which it actually wasn't
Without the Emperor's decisiveness, the war would have continued for a time. At least a
dozen nuclear bombs would have been dropped on Japan, at a time when most of the scientists who invented them had no inkling
of how far fatal radiation sickness from them could spread ; they do not really know even now. Soviet troops as senior partners
to Chinese communists would have swarmed into Asia, imposing a clamp on much of East Asia, just as it was imposed on East
When Emperor Hirohito
declared on the radio that the "war situation had developed not necessarily to Japan's advantage" and that he had
therefore resolved to "tolerate the intolerable", he was sticking out his neck at dire risk that it would be chopped
off. Emperor Hirohito was ordering action on the basis of a minority view of the ruling establishment, a courage without constitutional
precedence. At that moment he ran an almost equal risk of being killed either by fanatic defeated Japanese or fanatically
victorious white men.
the early period of occupation, some Americans and most Australians wanted to hang the Emperor. When Churchill at Potsdam
advocated allowing Japan to surrendered with honour, Truman said that Japanese honour now had no meaning, drawing from Churchill
the sage view that "well, they have something they are willing to die for, and kill for, and which may mean more for
them than it nee do to us". When MacArthur summoned Hirohito to meet him in Tokyo, the little man touched the immensely
tall one by insisting with his first sentence that "any blame upon my people devolve wholly on to me".
Churchill had believed in 1918 that robbing
Germany of its imperial system was a mistake, "thus creating the vacuum into which strode Corporal Hitler". However,
Churchill was no longer in office when the terms of the Japanese armistice were imposed. It is a mercy- partly due to Emperor
Hirohito's bearing at his first meeting with Macarthur - that no such vacuum was created in post-1945 Japan. In renouncing
war, The Emperor led his country into embracing commercialism
The fruits of that commercialism have transformed Japan during the long twentieth century
reign of Emperor Hirohito even more than Britain was transformed during Queen Victoria's long reign in the previous century.
Both monarch's presided over te maturing of a great international economic power, but the maturing of Japan is the more extraordinary.
Without that bold decision in 1945, Japan could be a radioactive desert, westerners would then be hated throughout Asia, and
most rising oriental suns would be in the eclipse of Stalinism
Emperor Hirohito, (1901-1989) is now named Emperor
1943 norman macrae formed his
first idea of the future of the world while spending his last days as a teenager navigating raf planes over modern-day myanmar
-basically the only way to end world wars was to go post colonial in the way trade maps were linkedin - and
that across Asia at least the UK would need to get down to a huge amount of reconcilation
-surviving the war, normans views were sharpened up by Keynes at Cambridge and then debated at The Economist
for most of the remainder of the century
we will see ,lower down, that he was celebrating the sustainbale rise of the far east trading maps (route
E1 Japan to Singapore) from as early as 1962 and
mobilising the empowerment implications of satellites and moores law from the late 1960s.
THE GAMES of WorldRecordJobs.com
in 2010; his friends and family are currently surveying who he would likely choose as 52 WRJ Creators to be published as a pack of cards
we welcome your participation as players or editors of the game but not to jump ahead of ourselves
how did norman map out each decade
of accelerating tech who and what millennials would need to web round?
but perhaps his 1984-5 future to 2025 remains most relevant if you wish to urgently value how
much work we now need to help youth do,entering 2020s the humansAI and SDGs decade
Net Futures - The 2025
Back in 1984-5 , Norman and Chris Macrae wrote "The 2025 Report:
a future history of the next 40 years". It was the first book to:
- provide readers with a brainstorming
journey of what people in an internetworking world might do
- predict that a new economy would emerge with
revolutionary new productivity and social benefits enjoyed by all who interacted in a net-connected world
Our 1984 scenario of an internetworking world
great technological event of the next 40 years will be the steady rise in importance of the Telecommunications-Computer terminal
(TC for short)... Eventually books, files, television programmes, computer information and telecommunications will merge.
We'll have this portable object which is a television screen with first a typewriter, later a voice activator attached. Afterwards
it will be minaturised so that your personal access instrument can be carried in your buttonhole, but there will be these
cheap terminals around everywhere, more widely than telephones of 1984. The terminals will be used to access databases anywhere
in the globe, and will become the brainworker's mobile place of work. Brainworkers, which will increasingly mean all workers,
will be able to live in Tahiti if they want to and telecommute daily to the New York or Tokyo or Hamburg office through which
they work. In the satellite age costs of transmission will not depend mainly on distance. And knowledge once digitalised can
be replicated for use anywhere almost instantly.
Norman Macrae: Over the last 2 decades, I have written
many articles in The Economist and delivered lectures in nearly 30 countries across the world saying the future should be
much more rosy. eg China 1977, 2 billion more asian neighbors 1977 Asia Pacific 1975, Japan Rising part 2 1967 .Russsia 1963 It is not that I cannot conceive pessimistic futures but a global journalist let alone a teacher or researcher
of economies, has no right to use media in such a way.
This book explores the lovely future people could have if only
all democrats made the right decisions.
and what makes people distant, bossy etc|
Telecommunications are now recognised as the third of the three great transport revolutions that have, in swift succession,
transformed society in the past two hundred years. First, were the railways; second the automobile; and third, telecommunications-attached-to-the-computer,
which was bound to be the most far-reaching because in telecommunications, once the infrastructure is installed, the cost
of use does not depend greatly on distance. So by the early years of the twenty-first century brainworkers - which in rich
countries already meant most workers - no longer need to live near their work.
All three revolutions were opposed by the ruling establishments of their time, and
therefore emerged fastest where government was weak. All three brought great new freedoms to the common man, but the railway
and motor-car ages temporarily made access to capital the most important source of economic power. As most men and women did
not like being bossed about by capitalists who could become more powerful because they were born stinking rich, they voted
to give greater economic power to governments during the railway and motor-car ages. This was economically inefficient, and
also made tyrannies more likely and more terrible. The information revolution was fortunately the exact opposite of the steam
engine's industrial revolution and of Henry Ford's mass production automobile revolution in this respect. The steam engine
and mass production has made start-up costs for the individual entrepreneur larger and larger, so that in both the steam and
automobile ages to quote Bell Canada's Gordon Thompson in the early 1970s, there was 'no way an ordinary citizen could walk
into a modern complex factory and use its facilities to construct something useful for himself'. But, as Thompson forecast,
the databases of the next decades were places into which every part-time enthusiast could tele-commute. In all jobs connected
with the use of information, start-up costs for the individual entrepreneur in 1984-2024 have grown smaller and smaller. It
was 'never thus', said Thompson, 'with power shovels and punch presses'.In consequence, in the TC age, the most important economic resource is no longer ownership of
or access to capital, but has become the ability to use readily available knowledge intelligently and entrepreneurially.
| || Changing national politics|
For a region's people
to succeed in the Telecommuting Age there are four main requirements - satisfied in places as far apart ad Guam and Queensland
and Cape Province and California and Penang and Scotland. First , as the prophet John Naisbitt said in 1982, 'the languages
needed for the immediate future are computer and English'. Second, the area has to be a nice one in which to live. Third,
it is important that all income earners should adapt happily to a 'cafeteria of compensation' schemes. These allow the individual
employee to decide what mix (s)he wants of salary, job objectives, career aims, flexitime, job sharing, long or short holidays,
fringe benefits or fringe nuisances. Fourth, there needs to be a competitive and quickly changing telecommunications system.
The TC age is making understanding of these requirements increasingly transparent among human beings worldwide.
Governments at first tried to impede or regulate much of this,
but an early discovery of the Telecommutung age was that we could change the way we chose our governments. Until the 1990s
we had pretended to ourselves that we could alter our lifestyles by choosing on each Tuesday or Thursday every four years
whether Mr Reagan or Mr Carter , Mrs Thatcher or Mr Kinnock, was putting on the tribal demonstration which at that particular
moment annoyed us less. After the advent of the TC we found that the more sensible and direct way in which a free man or woman
could choose government was by voting with his or her feet. The individual could go to live in any area where the government
- which could from then on be a very local government - permitted the lifestyle, rules and customs which suited that human
of the international Centrobank was the last great act of government before government grew much less important. It was not
a conception of policy-making governments at all, but emerged from the first computerised town meeting of the world.
By 2005 the gap in income and expectations
between the rich and poor nations was recognised to be man's most dangerous problem. Internet linked television channels in
sixty-eight countries invited their viewers to participate in a computerised conference about it, in the form of a series
of weekly programmes. Recommendations tapped in by viewers were tried out on a computer model of the world economy. If recommendations
were shown by the model to be likely to make the world economic situation worse, they were to be discarded. If recommendations
were reported by the model to make the economic situation in poor countries better, they were retained for 'ongoing computer
analysis' in the next programme.
it is easy to see this as a forerunner of the TC conferences which play so large a part in our lives today, both as pastime
and principal innovative device in business. But the truth of this 2005 breakthrough tends to irk the highbrow. It succeeded
because it was initially a rather downmarket network television programme. About 400 million people watched the first programme,
and 3 million individuals or groups tapped in suggestions. Around 99 per cent of these were rejected by the computer as likely
to increase the unhappiness of mankind. It became known that the rejects included suggestions submitted by the World Council
of Churches and by many other pressure groups. This still left 31,000 suggestions that were accepted by the computer as worthy
of ongoing analysis. As these were honed, and details were added to the most interesting, an exciting consensus began to emerge.
Later programmes were watched by nearly a billion people as it became recognised that something important was being born.
These audiences were swollen by successful
telegimmicks. The presenter of the first part of the first programme was a roly-poly professor who was that year's Nobel laureate
in economics, and who proved a natural television personality. He explained that economists now agreed that aid programmes
could sometimes help poor countries, but sometimes most definitely made their circumstances worse. When Mexico was inflating
at over 80 per cent a year in the early 1980s , the inflow to it of huge loanable funds made its inflation even faster and
its crash more certain. The professor set Mexico's 1979-1981 economy on the model, pumped in the loaned funds and showed how
all the indicators ( higher inflation, lower real gross domestic product and so on) then flashed red, signaling an economy
getting worse, rather than green, signaling an economy getting better. ..The professor then put the model back to mirror the
contemporary world of 2005, and played into it various nostrums that had been recommended by politicians of left, right and
centre, but mostly left. The dials generally flashed red. Then the professor provided another set of recommendations , and
asked viewers who wished to play to tap in their own guesses on the consequent movement of key economics variables in the
model. Those who got their guesses right to within a set error were told they had qualified for a second round of a knock-out
economic guesstimators' world championship. Knockout competitions of this sort continued for viewers throughout the series
In the second part of
that first programme, the presenters dared to introduce two political decisions into the game. They said that government-to-government
aid programmes had been particularly popular among politicians during the age of over-government, but there was growing agreement
that government-to-government aid was the worst method of hand-out. The excessive role played by governments in poor countries
was one of the barriers to their economic advance, and a main destroyer of their people's freedom. Could anyone have thought
it would be wise to give aid to President Mbogo?
In consequence, the most successful economic aid programmes had been those operated through the International Monetary
Fund, which imposed conditions on how borrowing governments should operate. The professor showed that IMF-monitored operations
in most years had brought more green flashes from the model than red. But this involved IMF officials - often from the rich
countries - in telling governments of poor countries what to do; and one of the objectives of this town meeting of the world
was to diminish such embarrassments.The
first questions to be asked in the next few programmes, said the compilers, were 1) which countries should qualify for aid?
; and having decided that, 2) up to what limits and conditions? ; and 3) through what mechanisms? They promised that later
programmes after the first half-dozen would examine how any scheme could be used to diminish the power of governments and
increase the power of free markets and free people.
| Changing employment|
In a typical
21st C scene, obedience to consumer needs is shown by every car plant in the world because of better and more customised information
available on all our TCs. Most people buying a car in 2024 will key into their special requirements into their TCs.
The TC will reply: "You can get a customised
car which meets all of your specifications by putting personalised instructions on the software of the assembly line's robots
in one of these factories (choice of nine) requesting that the next car on the line be modified as you dictate. But that would
cost up to $40,000 (Click to factories for quotations and credit facilities). For a fifth of that price, you can meet most
of your requirements by the following standard computer programme at present scheduled for production in June at Nissan Kanpur;
or July at Ford Manila (and so on). Click to factories for precise specifications and prices.
All of this has become commonplace after 2000. How has it affected
For a new
industry of 2019-2024 let us cite the intendedly short-lived example of the Clark-Schmidt Robot Gardener. Matthew Clark was
a 53-year old on his third university course (he had started the other two at the ages of nineteen and thirty-seven respectively)
telecommuted through the University of Southern California, although he took it while living in his native Australia , when,
together with two other student's telecommuting through USC's database, he devised a system for a robot-driven lawnmower which
could also scan soil and assess the possibilities for reseeding. It signaled the videos to be called up on your TC to show
alternative uses for the soil in your garden. If you picked one video display that particularly suited your taste, you keyed
in its number into the Robot Gardener and it signaled back, 'put such-and-such chemical into my tank and seeds 1234, 3456
(et cetera), plus software program 29387 - both orderable through your TC - into my reseeder.'
Clark and his two colleagues put their tentative ideas for this device
on the researchers' database monitored by the University of Southern California. The entry numbers to the USC database were
held by people who had promised to accept the computer's judgement of the value of any ideas they might contribute to projects
entered on it. In all, 1213 people - domiciled from Hanoi through Penang and Capri and Bermuda back to Queensland in Australia
itself - tapped in suggestions for improvements, of which 176 were accepted nby the computer as worthwhile. The payments recommended
by the computer ranged from $42 ( for a cosmetic improvement recommended by an eleven-year-old schoolboy) to one tenth of
the equity (eventually worth several million dollars) for a proposal by a research team from another telecommuting university
which proved important enough for Clark to feel slightly guilty about calling the Robot Gardener after himself.
When the improvements suggested by these 176 contributors had been
incorporated by Clark into the appropriate software program for making the Robot Gardener , it was advertised on USC's entrepreneur-browsing
program available on any TC. Entry numbers for the lowest echelons of this can be bought for a very few dollars, but the Robot
Gardener was put on a higher echelon because USC's computer had signaled this was a potential quick winner.
One of those who had paid for an expensive entry number into browsing
among good 'proffered opportunity products' (POPs) was a Dutchman called Carl Schmidt. He had become a successful 'arranging
producer' in an earlier venture, and now occupied himself browsing through his TC looking for a second bonanza. He made an
offer to Clark to tale an option for launch in return for a fairly complicates programme of profit sharing, which in practice
(because arranging is nowadays a more skilled job than inventing) eventually gave Schmidt more money than Clark. Clark accepted
this and Schmidt produced a prototype within three days by reprogramming robots in an experimental plant. A video of the prototype
was put on consumers' TC channels worldwide the next week, and most of the 400 odd gardeners' TC channels round the world
picked it out within days as a 'best buy'.
video advertisement said 'If you key in your order now with your credit number, you can get a Robot Gardener for a bargain
price (applies to the first 10,000 orders only). Tenders are also invited for part of the equity.' The advance orders and
bids for equity made it possible to finance assembly of the Robot Gardener for early-bid customers within a few weeks...
Note that there was never any intention that
Robot Gardeners Inc should grow into a huge and long-lasting company. Clark and Schmidt are already researching and browsing
into other possibilities, on separate courses. About fifty of those who succeeded by early participation in this venture hope
to become the equivalent of Clark and Schmidt in other things.
At no stage has this enormously successful manufacturing venture employed more than 1000 people. It is
therefore true that the loss of nine-tenths of manufacturing jobs , which we saw has been highest in car-making in rich countries,
has also been true there in manufacturing jobs as a whole. Where these countries had 20-40 per cent of their workforces in
manufacturing in 1974, they typically have 2-4 per cent now.
This is not an unprecedented rundown. In the 1890s around half of the workforce in countries like the
United States were in three occupations: agriculture, domestic service and jobs to do with horse transport. By the 1970s these
three were down to 4 per cent of the workforce. If this had been foretold in the 1890s, there would have been a wail. It would
have been said that half the population was fit only to be farmworkers, parlourmaids and sweepers-up of horse manure. Where
would this half find jobs? The answer was by the 1970s the majority of them were much more fully employed ( because more married
women joined the workforce) doing jobs that would have sounded double-Dutch in the 1890s: extracting oil instead of fish out
of the North Sea; working as computer programmers, or as television engineers, or as package-holiday tour operators chartering
The move in jobs in the
past fifty years in the rich countries has been out of manufacturing and into telecommuting.
| Changing education|
There has been a sea-change in the traditional ages on man. Compared with 1974 our children in 2024 generally go
out to paid work (especially computer programming work) much earlier, maybe starting at nine, maybe at twelve, and we do not
exploit them. But young adults of twenty-three to forty-five stay at home to play much more than in 1974; it is quite usual
today for one parent (probably now generally the father, although sometimes the mother) to stay at home during the period
when young children are growing up. And today adults of forty-three to ninety-three go back to school - via computerised learning
- much more than they did in 1974.
most of the rich countries in 2024 children are not allowed to leave school until they pass their Preliminary Exam. About
5 per cent of American children passed their exam last year before their eight birthday, but the median age for passing it
in 2024 is ten-and-a-half, and remedial education is generally needed if a child has not passed it by the age of fifteen.
A child who passes his Prelim can decide whether
to tale a job at once, and take up the remainder of his twelve years of free schooling later; or he can pass on to secondary
schooling forthwith, and start to study for his Higher Diploma.
The mode of learning for the under-twelves is nowadays generally computer-generated. The child sits at
home or with a group of friends or (more rarely) in an actual, traditional school building. She or he will be in touch with
a computer program that has discovered , during a preliminary assessment, her or his individual learning pattern. The computer
will decide what next questions to ask or task to set after each response from each child.
A school teacher assessor, who may live half a world away, will generally
have been hired, via the voucher system by the family for each individual child. A good assessor will probably have vouchers
to monitor the progress of twenty-five individual children, although some parents prefer to employ groups of assessors - one
following the child's progress in emotional balance, one in mathematics, one in civilized living, and so on - and these groups
band together in telecommuting schools.
communities and districts also have on-the-spot 'uncles' and 'aunts'. They monitor childrens' educational performance by browsing
through the TC and also run play groups where they meet and get to know the children personally...
Some of the parents who have temporarily opted out of employment
to be a family educator also put up material on the TC s for other parents to consult. Sometimes the advice is given for free,
sometimes as a business. It is a business for Joshua Ginsberg. He puts a parents advice newsletter on the TC , usually monthly.
Over 300,000 people subscribe to it, nowadays at a 25-cent fee per person, or less if you accept attached advertisements.
Here's an entry from the current newsletter:
that TCs are universal and can access libraries of books, 3-d video, computer programs, you name it, it is clear that the
tasks of both the Educator and the Communicator are far more stimulating that ten years ago.
One of my recent lessons with my ten-year-old daughter Julie was in art
appreciation. In the standard art appreciation course the TC shows replicas of famous artists' pictures, and a computer asks
the pupil to match the artist to the picture. Julie said to the computer that it would be fun to see Constable's Haywain as
Picasso might have drawn it. The computer obliged with its interpretation , and then ten more stylised haywains appeared together
with the question 'who might have drawn these?'. I believe we are the first to have prompted the TC along this road, but it
may now become a standard question when the computer recognises a child with similar learning patterns to Julie's.
It is sometimes said that today's isolated sort of teaching has
robbed children of the capacity to play and interact with other children. This is nonsense. We ensure that Julie and her four
year old brother Pharon have lots of time to play with children in our neighbourhood . But in work we do prefer to interact
with children who are of mutual advantage to Julie and to each other. The computer is an ace teacher, but so are people. You
really learn things if you can teach them to someone else. Our computer has helped us to find a group of four including Julie
with common interests, who each have expertise in some particular areas to teach the others.
The TC also makes it easier to play games within the family. My parents
used to play draughts, halma, then chess with me. They used to try to be nice to me and let me win. This condescending kindness
humiliated me, and I always worked frenetically to beat my younger brother (who therefore always lost and dissolved into tears.)
Today Julie, Pharon and I play halma together against the graded computer, and Julie and I play it at chess. The computer
knows Pharon's standard of play at halma and Julie's and mine at chess. Its default setting is at that level where each of
us can win but only if we play at our best. Thus Pharon sometimes wins his halma game while Julie and I are simultaneously
losing our chess game, and this rightly gives Pharon a feeling of achievement. When Julie and I have lost at chess, we usually
ask the computer to re-rerun the game, stopping at out nmistakes and giving a commentary. As it is a friendly computer it
does a marvelous job of consoling us. Last week it told Julie that the world champion actually once made the same mistake
as she had done - would she like to see that game?
I intend to devote the next two letters to the subjects I have discussed here , but retailing the best of your suggestions
instead of droning on with mine."
the computer's role in children's education is mainly that of instructor (discovering a child's learning pattern and responding
to it) and learning group matcher, its main role in higher education is as a store of knowledge. Although a computer can only
know what Man has taught it, it has this huge advantage. No individual man lives or studies long enough to imbibe within himself
all the skills and resources that are the product of the millennia of man's quest for knowledge, all the riches and details
from man's inheritance of learning passed on from generation to generation. But any computer today can inherit and call up
instantly any skill which exists anywhere in the form of a program.
This is why automatically updated databases are today the principal instruments of higher education
and academic research. It is difficult for our generation to conceive that only forty years ago our scientists acted as tortoise-like
discoverers of knowledge, confined to small and jealous cliques with random and restricted methods of communicating ideas.
Down until the 1980s the world has several hundred sepaate cancer research organisations with no central co-ordinating database.